Andrew Wang

Impact of demographics on shifts in the electorate since 2000

Started June 30, 2021

Abstract or project description

Political analysts have long studied demographic shifts and their relation to the electoral change in the United States. This study conducts a qualitative analysis for 19 case-study counties to determine the limitations and accuracy of using race and age as indicators of presidential election margin shift from 2000 to 2020. Post analysis, I created four types to explain the overarching shift themes: normal, urban, Rust Belt, and group status. The normal type followed initial hypotheses on age and race (older populations vote more Republican and diverse populations vote more Democratic), the urban-type highlighted the larger magnitude of Democratic shift seen in diverse urban areas, the Rust Belt type showed how white-dominant and greying populations of the Rust Belt were becoming more Republican, and the group status type showed that racial diversification was not always reliable for Democrats - that sometimes it could create a backlash effect that drives white residents to vote Republican and ultimately shift the county Republican.